基于多环境要素的新疆耕地适宜性评价

doi:10.19657/j.geoscience.1000-8527.2024.049

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新疆地域辽阔、自然环境复杂多样,综合评价各类环境要素对耕地适宜性的制约与对耕地适宜区分布的影响,是开展区域耕地资源保护与耕地后备资源开发的重要基础,对维护新疆粮食安全和实施土地整治具有重要意义。本研究基于新疆耕地分布数据,通过最大熵模型和空间统计分析,研究气候(气温、降水)、地形、水文、土壤和地质等5类35个环境要素对新疆山地区与平原区耕地(旱地和水田)适宜区分布的影响。主要取得如下认识:(1)在平原区,影响旱地适宜性的主要因素为土壤总氮、到水系距离和冬季降水,而影响水田适宜性的主要因素为到水系距离、土壤pH、土壤表层湿度和>10 ℃年积温;在山地区,>0 ℃年积温、冬季降水、坡度和到水系距离是影响旱地适宜性的主要因素。(2)旱地高适宜区总面积约为78221 km²,主要分布于新疆西北部的阿尔泰山,西天山和中天山的中低海拔区域(海拔<2000 m),以及塔里木盆地边缘的山麓平原;新疆水田高适宜区总面积约为2834 km²,面积相对旱地较少,主要零星分布在新疆的中天山和西天山等雨水充沛地区。本研究选用的35个环境变量是当前可获取到的最新数据,数据较为全面、系统和准确,能够综合评价气候、地形、水文、土壤和地质因素对新疆耕地(旱地和水田)分布的影响程度,筛选出对耕地适宜性影响最大的环境变量,最终获得新疆耕地适宜区的分布。研究结果可为新疆土地资源利用提供科学支撑,为新疆耕地的开发与利用提供参考与建议。

关键词: 耕地, 新疆, 适宜性评价, 主控因素

Abstract:

Croplands are natural resources which are essential to human survival and economic development.A comprehensive assessment on the impacts of various environmental factors on the suitability and distribution of croplands is able to more efficiently assist the utilization and development of the land.Xinjiang possesses a large area with the complex climatic, topographic, soil, and geological conditions that affect the patterns of soil use.In this study, a Maxent model and spatial statistics were used to analyze the distribution of suitable areas for croplands (drylands and paddy fields) in the mountainous and plain regions in Xinjiang.A total of 35 environmental variables related to climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation), topography, hydrology, soils, and geo-logy were used in the assessment.The main findings are as follows: (1) In the plains, soils’ total nitrogen, distance to the water system, and winter precipitation are the main factors affecting the suitability of drylands.In the mountains, >0 ℃ annual accumulation temperature, winter precipitation, slope, and distance to the water system are the primary factors affecting the suitability of drylands.For paddy fields in the plains, distance to the water system, soil pH, soil surface moisture, and >10 ℃ annual accumulation temperature are the main factors affecting the suitability of paddy fields.(2) The high suitability area for drylands in Xinjiang is about 78,221 km² in total, mainly located in Altai Mountains in Northwestern Xinjiang, the middle and low altitude areas (<2,000 m above sea level) in western and middle Tianshan Mountains, and the near-mountain plains at the edge of Tarim Basin.The high suitability area for paddy fields in Xinjiang is about 2,834 km² in total, a little smaller in area comparing to the drylands, which is mainly located in middle and western Tianshan Mountains.They are generally scattered in the middle and western Tianshan regions.The 35 environmental variables selected in this study are currently the latest accessible dataset, and the data are relatively comprehensive, integrated, systematic, and accurate.Based on the output of this model, it is possible to comprehensively evaluate the influence of climatic, topographic, hydrological, soil and geological factors on the distribution of Xinjiang’s cropland (drylands and paddy fields), and screen out the environmental variables that affect the suitability of croplands the most. At the end, the distribution of Xinjiang’s croplands suitability zones are obtained.This study provides a scie.pngic support for the utilization of land resources in Xinjiang, as well as providing a reference and valuable suggestions for the development and upgrading of Xinjiang’s croplands.

Key words: cropland, Xinjiang, suitability assessment, dominant factor

中图分类号:

P963

赵晓峰, 刘晓煌, 刘玖芬, 李洪宇, 张文博. 基于多环境要素的新疆耕地适宜性评价[J]. 现代地质, 2024, 38(03): 718-733.

ZHAO Xiaofeng, LIU Xiaohuang, LIU Jiufen, LI Hongyu, ZHANG Wenbo. Suitability Assessment on the Croplands in Xinjiang Based on Multi-environmental Factors[J]. Geoscience, 2024, 38(03): 718-733.

图/表 16

图1 新疆坡度(a)与地形分区(b)

Fig.1 Slope (a) and topographic zoning (b)in Xinjiang

表1 新疆旱地与水田特征与描述

Table 1 Description and characterization of the drylands and paddy fields in Xinjiang

耕地类型	描述	面积 (km²)		用于模型的点数(个)
耕地类型	描述	面积 (km²)		平原区	山地区
旱地	无灌溉水源及设施,靠天然降水生长作物的耕地;有水源和浇灌设施,在一般年景下能正常灌溉的旱作物耕地;以种菜为主的耕地;正常耕作的休闲地和轮歇地	67957	18229			1776
水田	有水源保证和灌溉设施,在一般年景能正常灌溉,用以种植水稻、莲藕等水生农作物的耕地,包括实行水稻和旱地作物轮种的耕地	552	80			-

图2 新疆旱地与水田分布

Fig.2 Distribution of the drylands and paddy fields in Xinjiang

表2 用于分析新疆耕地适宜区的35个环境变量

Table 2 Thirty-five environmental variables for the analysis of suitable areas for croplands in Xinjiang

变量类型		变量	描述	时间范围与来源
气候类	气温	Tem_Avg	年平均气温(℃)	2000—2020年的平均值,国家气象科学数据中心(https://www.data.cma.cn/)
		Tem_Su	夏季平均气温(6—8月)(℃)
		Tem_Wi	冬季平均气温(12—2月)(℃)
		Accu_Tem0	>0 ℃年积温(经DEM校正)(℃)
		Accu_Tem10	>10 ℃年积温(经DEM校正)(℃)
		Tem_Days10	每年稳定>10 ℃天数(d)
	降水	Pre_Avg	年平均降水量(mm)
		Pre_Su	夏季平均降水(6—8月)(mm)
		Pre_Wi	冬季平均降水(12—2月)(mm)
		Aridity	干燥度
地形类		Ele	高程(m)	2008年,地理空间数据云平台(https://www. gscloud.cn/)
		Slope	坡度(°)
		Aspect	坡向(°)
水文类		Dist_Water	到五级水系的欧式距离(km)	2008年,HydroSHEDS(https://hydrosheds.org/)
土壤类		Soil_Tem1	土壤分层温度1(0~10 cm)	2018—2022年的平均值,气象科学专业知识服务系统(https://data.cma.cn/mekb/)
		Soil_Tem2	土壤分层温度2(10~20 cm)
		Soil_Tem3	土壤分层温度3(20~40 cm)
		Soil_Tem4	土壤分层温度4(40~100 cm)
		Soil_Tem5	土壤分层温度5(100~200 cm)
		Soil_Moi1	土壤分层湿度1(0~10 cm)
		Soil_Moi2	土壤分层湿度2(10~20 cm)
		Soil_Moi3	土壤分层湿度3(20~40 cm)
		Soil_Moi4	土壤分层湿度4(40~100 cm)
		Soil_Moi5	土壤分层湿度5(100~200 cm)
		Soil_Depth	土层厚度(cm)	第二次全国土壤调查数据(http://data.tpdc.ac.cn)
		Sand	土壤砂土含量(%)
		Clay	土壤黏土含量(%)
		CEC	阳离子交换量(meq/hg)
		pH	土壤pH
		SOM	土壤有机质(g/hg)
		Ca	可交换态Ca²⁺(meq/hg)
		TN	土壤总氮(g/hg)
		TP	土壤总磷(g/hg)
		TK	土壤总钾(g/hg)
地质类		Dist_Fault	到断层欧式距离(m)	1：25万区域地质图

表3 新疆耕地适宜区的划分标准

Table 3 Criteria for delineating suitable zones for the croplands in Xinjiang

存在概率	适宜区的划分
<0.2	非适宜区
0.2~0.5	低适宜区
>0.5	高适宜区

表4 去除空间相关性后的变量及其贡献率

Table 4 Variables and their contribution after removal of the spatial correlations

旱地(平原区)		旱地(山地区)		水田(平原区)
变量	贡献率(%)	变量	贡献率(%)	变量	贡献率(%)
TN	33.6	Accu_Tem0	32.2	Dist_Water	35.7
Dist_Water	30.8	Pre_Wi	29.8	pH	12.8
Pre_Wi	24.8	Slope	14.2	Soil_Moi1	10.5
Tem_Su	4.1	Dist_Water	12.9	Accu_Tem10	9.6
Soil_Depth	2.3	Soil_Depth	5.4	SOM	7.0
Ele	1.7	TK	2.4	Dist_Fault	5.7
Sand	1.2	SOM	1.2	Tem_Su	5.2
TK	1.2	Soil_Moi1	1.1	Slope	4.2
Soil_Moi4	0.3	Ele	0.9	Ca	3.9
				Aridity	2.5
				Aspect	1.9
				Clay	1.1

图3 新疆耕地适宜区分布模型的受试者特征曲线(ROC和AUC) (a)平原区旱地受试者特征曲线;(b)山地区旱地受试者特征曲线;(c)平原区水田受试者特征曲线

Fig.3 ROC and AUC curves for the distribution model of suitable areas of the croplands in Xinjiang

图4 新疆平原区(a)和山地区(b)旱地适宜性的刀切检验结果

Fig.4 Jackknife test of the drylands suitability analysis in plain regions (a) and mountain regions (b) in Xinjiang

图5 新疆平原区旱地适宜性主要影响因素的响应曲线 (a)平原区土壤总氮与旱地适宜性的响应曲线;(b)平原区土壤总氮(TN)特征;(c)平原区到水系距离与旱地适宜性的响应曲线;(d)平原区到水系距离(Dist_Water)特征;(e)平原区冬季降水与旱地适宜性的响应曲线;(f)平原区冬季降水(Pre_Wi)特征

Fig.5 Response curves of the main factors influencing suitability of drylands in plain regions of Xinjiang

图6 新疆山地区旱地适宜性主要影响因素的响应曲线 (a)山地区>0 ℃年积温与旱地适宜性的响应曲线;(b)山地区>0 ℃年积温(Accu_Tem0)特征;(c)山地区冬季降水与旱地适宜性的响应曲线;(d)山地区冬季降水(Pre_Wi)特征;(e)山地区坡度与旱地适宜性的响应曲线;(f)山地区坡度(Slope)特征;(g)山地区到水系距离与旱地适宜性的响应曲线;(h)山地区到水系距离(Dist_Water)特征

Fig.6 Response curves of the main factors influencing the suitability of drylands in mountain regions in Xinjiang

图7 新疆旱地适宜区分布

Fig.7 Distribution of suitable areas for the drylands in Xinjiang

表5 新疆各州/市/地区旱地高适宜区面积统计

Table 5 Statistics of high suitability areas for the drylands in Xinjiang by states/cities/regions

序号	区域	高适宜区(km²)
1	阿克苏地区	12372
2	阿勒泰地区	7852
3	巴音郭楞蒙古自治州	4664
4	博尔塔拉蒙古自治州	2791
5	昌吉回族自治州	9047
6	哈密市	100
7	和田地区	2003
8	喀什地区	12809
9	克拉玛依市	207
10	克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州	977
11	塔城地区	12820
12	吐鲁番市	680
13	乌鲁木齐市	1122
14	伊犁哈萨克自治州	10777
新疆全区域		78221

图8 新疆平原区水田适宜性分析的刀切检验结果 Accu_Tem10.>10 ℃年积温;Aridity.干燥度;Aspect.坡向;Ca.土壤可交换态Ca2+;Clay.土壤黏土含量;Dist_Fault.到断层欧氏距离;Dist_Water.到水系距离;SOM.土壤有机质;Slope.坡度;Soil_Moi1.土壤分层湿度1;Tem_Su.夏季平均气温;pH.土壤pH

Fig.8 Jackknife test of paddy fields suitability analysis in the plain regions of Xinjiang

图9 新疆平原区水田适宜性主要影响因素的响应曲线 (a)平原区到水系距离与水田适宜性的响应曲线;(b)平原区到水系距离(Dist_Water)特征;(c)平原区土壤pH与水田适宜性的响应曲线;(d)平原区土壤pH特征;(e)平原区土壤分层湿度1与水田适宜性的响应曲线;(f)平原区土壤分层湿度1(Soil_Moi1)特征;(g)平原区>10 ℃年积温与水田适宜性的响应曲线;(h)平原区>10 ℃年积温(Accu_Tem10)特征

Fig.9 Response curves of the main factors influencing the suitability of paddy fields in the plain regions in Xinjiang

图10 新疆水田适宜区分布

Fig.10 Distribution of suitable areas for the paddy fields in Xinjiang

表6 新疆各州/市/地区水田高适宜区面积统计

Table 6 Statistics of high suitability areas for the paddy fields in Xinjiang by states/cities/regions

序号	区域	高适宜区(km²)
1	阿克苏地区	1774
2	巴音郭楞蒙古自治州	14
3	昌吉回族自治州	309
4	和田地区	1
5	喀什地区	284
6	克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州	1
7	塔城地区	59
8	乌鲁木齐市	181
9	伊犁哈萨克自治州	211
	新疆全区域	2834

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