2000—2040年黄河流域(河南段)生境质量时空格局演变及驱动力分析

doi:10.19657/j.geoscience.1000-8527.2024.040

现代地质 ›› 2024, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (03): 599-611.DOI: 10.19657/j.geoscience.1000-8527.2024.040

• 表生资源观测模拟与预测评价 • 上一篇下一篇

2000—2040年黄河流域(河南段)生境质量时空格局演变及驱动力分析

郭富印¹^,²^,³(), 刘晓煌¹(), 张文博¹, 邢莉圆¹, 王然¹, 祖皮艳木·买买提², 雒新萍¹, 王超¹, 赵宏慧¹

1.自然资源部自然资源耦合过程与效应重点实验室,北京 100055
2.新疆大学地理与遥感科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐 830017
3.中国地质调查局乌鲁木齐自然资源综合调查中心,新疆乌鲁木齐 830057

出版日期:2024-06-10 发布日期:2024-07-04
通讯作者: 刘晓煌,男,博士,正高级工程师,1972年出生,新疆维吾尔自治区“天池英才”引进计划人才,主要从事自然资源学、基础地质学和矿床学研究。Email: liuxh19972004@163.com。
作者简介:郭富印,男,硕士研究生,1997年出生,主要从事地理信息和生态遥感方向研究。Email:yinfunan@163.com。
基金资助:
中国地质科学院基础科研业务费用专项资金项目“黄河三角洲滨海盐土植被对浅层地下水变化的响应”(JKYQN202362);中国地质调查局地质调查专项“自然资源要素监测与综合观测工程”(DD20230112);自然资源部矿业城市自然资源调查监测与保护重点实验室开放课题项目(2023-B06);荒漠-绿洲生态监测与修复工程技术创新中心开放基金课题“开孔河流域绿洲耕地扩张的水土资源匹配与生态格局优化研究”(2023KFKTA001)

Evolution of the Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Habitat Quality and Analysis of the Driving Forces in Yellow River Basin (Henan Section) from 2000 to 2040

GUO Fuyin¹^,²^,³(), LIU Xiaohuang¹(), ZHANG Wenbo¹, XING Liyuan¹, WANG Ran¹, MAMAT Zulpiya², LUO Xinping¹, WANG Chao¹, ZHAO Honghui¹

1. Key Laboratory of Natural Resource Coupling Process and Effects, Beijing 100055, China
2. College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830017, China
3. Urumqi Center of Natural Resources Comprehensive Survey, China Geological Survey, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830057, China

Online:2024-06-10 Published:2024-07-04

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

实现经济发展与生态保护的共赢是一个世界性难题。随着经济社会的发展,人类活动强度对区域生境质量产生不同程度的影响,在欠发达地区这种影响往往是负面的,因此实现人口稠密的欠发达地区经济发展与生境保护相结合具有重要意义。以黄河流域(河南段)为例,基于InVEST模型生境质量模块与PLUS模型对该区域2000—2021年(历史时期)生境质量时空演变特征进行分析,并以5年为步长对2025年、2030年、2035年和2040年的生境质量进行模拟。研究结果表明:(1)历史时期研究区生境质量均值下降了0.05,呈下降趋势,生境质量高值区集中分布在研究区西南和西北部的山地,呈西高东低的分布格局。(2)历史时期研究区44.74%区域生境质量显著下降,下降区域分布在城乡建设和道路扩张用地区域,西部山区此趋势最为突出。33.81%区域生境质量显著上升,上升区域分布在东部耕地区域和西部林地。研究区生境破碎化趋势加强,海拔与植被等自然要素对区域生境质量水平影响显著,与生境质量水平正相关。(3)2025—2040年不同土地利用情景下的未来生境质量格局差异明显,生态保护情境下生境质量水平呈上升趋势,耕地保护情景下生境质量均值稳定中呈现小幅度提升,城市发展情景下生境质量均值呈现明显下降趋势,不同发展情景下人类活动对区域生境质量影响显著。本研究有助于进一步了解区域生境质量的发展趋势与对土地利用变化的响应。

关键词: 黄河流域, 生境质量, InVEST模型, PLUS模型, Sen趋势分析, Mann-Kendall检验

Abstract:

Practicing a win-win strategy between economic development and ecological protection is a challenging issue worldwide. With the development of economy and social civilization, the intensity of human activities that affects the quality of regional habitats show in different degrees. Particularly, in the developing areas, this effect is often negative, so it is of great significance to practice the combination of economic development and habitat protection in the densely populated and developing areas. Taking the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) as a study example, the spatial and temporal evolution of habitat quality in this region from 2000 to 2021 (historical period) were analyzed based on the habitat quality module of InVEST and the PLUS models. Furthermore, the habitat quality in 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040 was predicted with an interval of 5 years. The results of the study showed that: (1) the mean value of habitat quality during the historical period decreased by 0.05, showing a decreasing trend. The areas of high habitat quality were concentrated in the southwestern and northwestern mountainous areas, showing a distribution pattern of high in the west and low in the east. (2) During the historical period, 44.74% of the study area experienced a significant decline in habitat quality, mainly occurring in urban and rural construction and road expansion areas. This trend was the most prominent in the western mountainous areas. 33.81% of the study area experienced a significant increase in habitat quality, mainly occurring in the eastern cropland areas and western forested areas. The trend of habitat fragmentation in the study area enhances during the period, and the natural elements such as elevation and vegetation have significant impacts on the regional habitat quality, which is positively correlated with the habitat quality. (3) The future habitat quality patterns under different land use scenarios from 2025 to 2040 differ significantly, with an upward trend in the ecological protection scenario and a slight increase in the mean value of habitat quality in the arable land protection scenario. It also shows a significant downward trend in the mean value of habitat qua-lity in the urban development scenario and a significant impact of human activities on the quality of regional habitats under different development scenarios. This study provides further understandings on the development trend of regional habitat quality and its response to land use changes.

Key words: Yellow River Basin, habitat quality, InVEST model, PLUS model, Sen trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test

中图分类号:

P962

郭富印, 刘晓煌, 张文博, 邢莉圆, 王然, 祖皮艳木·买买提, 雒新萍, 王超, 赵宏慧. 2000—2040年黄河流域(河南段)生境质量时空格局演变及驱动力分析[J]. 现代地质, 2024, 38(03): 599-611.

GUO Fuyin, LIU Xiaohuang, ZHANG Wenbo, XING Liyuan, WANG Ran, MAMAT Zulpiya, LUO Xinping, WANG Chao, ZHAO Honghui. Evolution of the Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Habitat Quality and Analysis of the Driving Forces in Yellow River Basin (Henan Section) from 2000 to 2040[J]. Geoscience, 2024, 38(03): 599-611.

图/表 14

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数据名称	精度	格式	来源
土地利用类型数据(CLCD)	30 m	FGDBR	Zenodo网站(https://about.zenodo.org/)
道路数据、水系数据	矢量	SHP	OpenStreetmap(https://www.openstreetmap.org/)
数字高程模型(DEM)	30 m	TIFF	地理空间数据云(https://www.gscloud.cn/)
降水(Pre)	500 m	TIFF	GEE(https://earthengine.google.com/)
地表气温(Tem)
蒸散发(ET)
归一化植被指数(NDVI)	500 m	TIFF	EARTHDATA(https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/)
总初级生产力(GPP)
净初级生产力(NPP)
土壤质地数据	875 m	TIFF	联合国粮农组织(https://www.fao.org/)
国内生产总值(GDP)	1 km	TIFF	资源环境科学与数据中心(https://www.resdc.cn/)
人口(Population)	1 km	TIFF	资源环境科学与数据中心(https://www.resdc.cn/)
行政区划	矢量	SHP	国家基础地理信息中心(https://www.webmap.cn/)

数据名称	精度	格式	来源
土地利用类型数据(CLCD)	30 m	FGDBR	Zenodo网站(https://about.zenodo.org/)
道路数据、水系数据	矢量	SHP	OpenStreetmap(https://www.openstreetmap.org/)
数字高程模型(DEM)	30 m	TIFF	地理空间数据云(https://www.gscloud.cn/)
降水(Pre)	500 m	TIFF	GEE(https://earthengine.google.com/)
地表气温(Tem)
蒸散发(ET)
归一化植被指数(NDVI)	500 m	TIFF	EARTHDATA(https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/)
总初级生产力(GPP)
净初级生产力(NPP)
土壤质地数据	875 m	TIFF	联合国粮农组织(https://www.fao.org/)
国内生产总值(GDP)	1 km	TIFF	资源环境科学与数据中心(https://www.resdc.cn/)
人口(Population)	1 km	TIFF	资源环境科学与数据中心(https://www.resdc.cn/)
行政区划	矢量	SHP	国家基础地理信息中心(https://www.webmap.cn/)

威胁源因子	最大影响距离(km)	权重	衰退类型
耕地	8.0	0.7	线性衰减
铁路	5.0	0.6	指数衰减
建设用地	10.0	1.0	指数衰减
荒地	2.0	0.5	线性衰减
一级道路	3.0	1.0	线性衰减
二级道路	1.0	0.7	线性衰减
三级道路	0.5	0.5	指数衰减
四级道路	0.2	0.3	指数衰减

威胁源因子	最大影响距离(km)	权重	衰退类型
耕地	8.0	0.7	线性衰减
铁路	5.0	0.6	指数衰减
建设用地	10.0	1.0	指数衰减
荒地	2.0	0.5	线性衰减
一级道路	3.0	1.0	线性衰减
二级道路	1.0	0.7	线性衰减
三级道路	0.5	0.5	指数衰减
四级道路	0.2	0.3	指数衰减

土地利用/覆盖	生境适宜度	敏感度
土地利用/覆盖	生境适宜度	耕地	铁路	建设用地	荒地	一级道路	二级道路	三级道路	四级道路
耕地	0.6	0	0.35	0.50	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.05
林地	1.0	0.6	0.65	0.80	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.30
灌木	0.9	0.4	0.45	0.60	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.10
草地	0.9	0.4	0.45	0.60	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.10
水体	0.8	0.7	0.75	0.80	0.4	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.40
雪/冰	0	0	0	0	0.2	0	0	0	0
荒地	0.2	0.2	0.20	0.45	0	0.2	0.15	0.1	0.05
建设用地	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

2000—2040年黄河流域(河南段)生境质量时空格局演变及驱动力分析

Evolution of the Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Habitat Quality and Analysis of the Driving Forces in Yellow River Basin (Henan Section) from 2000 to 2040

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土地利用	2020	2025			2030			2035			2040
土地利用	2020	生态	耕地	城市	生态	耕地	城市	生态	耕地	城市	生态	耕地	城市
耕地	38.76	37.85	37.91	37.75	36.75	37.93	36.75	35.53	38.05	35.52	34.92	38.33	34.90
林地	14.88	15.22	15.17	15.28	15.19	14.86	15.06	15.53	14.89	15.23	15.68	14.84	15.26
灌木	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.05	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.04
草地	1.59	1.24	1.31	1.25	1.32	1.38	1.39	1.24	1.47	1.33	1.24	1.36	1.32
水体	0.65	0.66	0.65	0.66	0.66	0.66	0.65	0.67	0.66	0.66	0.67	0.66	0.67
建设用地	10.91	11.87	11.78	11.97	12.91	12.01	12.98	13.88	11.77	14.09	14.34	11.66	14.69

生境等级	2025				2030				2035				2040
生境等级	生态	耕地	城市		生态	耕地	城市		生态	耕地	城市		生态	耕地	城市
低	11.90	11.82	12.00	12.94		12.04	13.03	13.91		11.80	14.17	14.34		11.69	14.78
较低	0.54	0.56	0.56	0.57		0.54	0.57	0.58		0.56	0.57	0.57		0.55	0.59
中等	41.24	41.28	41.15	40.14		41.06	40.11	39.03		41.36	38.94	38.47		41.42	38.32
较高	7.06	7.08	7.06	7.06		7.08	7.07	7.20		7.04	7.10	7.23		7.03	7.10
高	6.14	6.14	6.13	6.15		6.17	6.12	6.18		6.14	6.11	6.25		6.20	6.10

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[2]	陈武迪, 刘晓煌, 李洪宇, 雒新萍, 王然, 邢莉圆, 白亚楠, 王超, 赵宏慧. 基于InVEST模型的新疆1990—2018年产水服务时空变化及驱动因素分析[J]. 现代地质, 2024, 38(03): 636-647.
[3]	郭佳晖, 刘晓煌, 张文博, 杨朝磊, 王然, 雒新萍, 邢莉圆, 王超, 赵宏慧. 基于InVEST模型和PLUS模型的云贵高原产水量时空变化特征分析[J]. 现代地质, 2024, 38(03): 624-635.
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参数	气温(X1)	高程(X2)	蒸散发(X3)	GDP(X4)	归一化植被指数(X5)	NPP(X6)	人口密度(X7)	降雨量(X8)	GPP(X9)
q值	0.31	0.32	0.21	0.13	0.40	0.21	0.23	0.11	0.20
p值	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

参数	气温(X1)	高程(X2)	蒸散发(X3)	GDP(X4)	归一化植被指数(X5)	NPP(X6)	人口密度(X7)	降雨量(X8)	GPP(X9)
q值	0.31	0.32	0.21	0.13	0.40	0.21	0.23	0.11	0.20
p值	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0