关键词: 泥石流, 地质灾害, 层次分析法, 可拓理论

Abstract:

       Debris flow is the main geological disaster in the mountainous area of Beijing. The geological disaster control and forecasting system of Beijing was put forward in 2003, but the forecasting system was not proved to be ideal. In order to improve the result accuracy of the forecasting system, this paper set up a new disaster forecasting model through extension theory and AHP. The factors of terrain, stratum, geological structure, and vegetation were selected as the basic influence factors. The disaster factor was selected as respond factor, and precipitation was selected as the trigger factor. The significance coefficients of the six basic factors were computed by AHP method. At last, the forecasting system of debris flow was set up through the extension theory and GIS system. Then the established model was validated through twenty historic debris flow events. The results show that the forecasting system has high accuracy, so this research plays a vital role in the geological disaster control and forecasting system of Beijing.

Key words: debris flow, geological disaster, AHP, extension theory