1982—2020年黄河流域(河南段)NDVI动态演变及其与气候变化响应研究

doi:10.19657/j.geoscience.1000-8527.2024.026

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于GIMMS NDVI3g和MODIS NDVI数据,利用一元线性回归模型,本文构建了1982—2020年黄河流域(河南段)GIMMS-MODIS NDVI数据集;在此基础上,结合Sen趋势、Mann-Kendall(M-K)及偏相关分析等方法探究了黄河流域(河南段)NDVI时空演变及其对气候因子的响应。结果表明:(1)重构的GIMMS MODIS NDVI和GIMMS NDVI拟合效果较好,其R²达到了0.8799(P<0.01),二者的月均值直方图差值在[-0.02,0.02]之间的占比高达81.47%;(2)1982—2020年黄河流域(河南段)年和春、夏、秋、冬四季NDVI值均呈现波动增加的趋势,其增加速率分别为0.0018 a^-1(P<0.01)、0.0027 a^-1(P<0.01)、0.0006 a^-1(P<0.1)、0.0013 a^-1(P<0.01)和0.0024 a^-1(P<0.01);空间上,该流域年和春、夏、秋、冬四季NDVI显著增加的面积占比分别为76.62%、76.62%、33.64%、57.19%和77.16%,显著下降的区域主要位于流域中南部地区;(3)1982—2020年黄河流域(河南段)年均气温呈现显著增加的趋势(slope=0.0377 ℃·a^-1,P<0.01)。从季节变化来看,春季和秋季的平均气温增加速率最快,降水的变化在年及其春、夏、秋、冬四季变化均不显著;(4)1982—2020年黄河流域(河南段)年、春季及其冬季NDVI变化主要受到气温控制,夏季NDVI变化主要受降水影响;从空间分布来看,年、春季和冬季NDVI与气温呈显著相关的站点比例分别为82.14%、50%和75%,春季、夏季和秋季NDVI与降水呈显著正相关的站点比例分别为3.57%、14.29%和3.57%,主要零星分布在流域的中部地区。

关键词: 黄河流域河南段, NDVI, 时空演变, 气候变化

Abstract:

We constructed the GIMMS-MODIS NDVI dataset of the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) from 1982 to 2020 using a monadic linear regression model with the GIMMS NDVI3g and MODIS NDVI data. In this study, we also investigated the temporal and spatial evolution of NDVI and its response to climate factors in the Henan section of the Yellow River Basin by using Sen trend, Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, and partial correlation analysis. The results show that (1) the reconstructed GIMMS MODIS NDVI and GIMMS NDVI have a better fitting index with the R² of 0.879,9(P<0.01). The discrepancy of the monthly mean difference between GIMMS MODIS NDVI and GIMMS NDVI is ±0.02, between 81.47%. (2) From 1982 to 2020, the NDVI values in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) showed an increasing trend in the annual and each season from spring to winter, and the increase rates were 0.001,8 a^-1 (P<0.01), 0.002,7 a^-1 (P<0.01), 0.000,6 a^-1 (P<0.1), 0.001,3 a^-1 (P<0.01) and 0.002,4 a^-1 (P<0.01), respectively. Spatially, the proportions of proparea with significant increase of NDVI in the interannual and each season were 76.62%, 76.62%, 33.64%, 57.19% and 77.16%, respectively. The area with significant decrease was mainly distributed in the central and southern part of the basin. (3) From 1982 to 2020, the average annual temperature in the Yellow River Basin (Henan Section) showed a significant increasing trend (Trend=0.037,7 ℃·a^-1, P<0.01). In terms of seasonal changes, the average temperature in spring and autumn increased at the fastest rate and the precipitation change was not pronounced along the year. (4) The annual, spring and winter NDVI changes in the Yellow River Basin from 1982 to 2020 were mainly controlled by temperature, and the summer NDVI changes were mainly affected by precipitation. In terms of spatial distribution, 82.14%, 50% and 75% of stations showed significant correlations between NDVI and temperature in annual, spring and winter, respectively. Moreover, 3.57%, 14.29% and 3.57% of stations showed significant positive correlations between NDVI and precipitation in spring, summer and autumn, respectively, which mainly are distributed in the central part of the basin.

Key words: Henan section of the Yellow River Basin, NDVI, spatial and temporal evolution, climate change

中图分类号:

P962

姚瑞晨, 郝仕龙, 李秀萍, 侯佳成, 陈浩源, 张岩. 1982—2020年黄河流域(河南段)NDVI动态演变及其与气候变化响应研究[J]. 现代地质, 2024, 38(03): 612-623.

YAO Ruichen, HAO Shilong, LI Xiuping, HOU Jiacheng, CHEN Haoyuan, ZHANG Yan. Dynamic Evolution of the Vegetation and Its Response to Climate Changes from 1982 to 2020 in the Yellow River Basin (Henan Section)[J]. Geoscience, 2024, 38(03): 612-623.

图/表 15

表1 2000年和2020年黄河流域(河南段)土地利用类型分布状况

Table 1 Distribution of land use types in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) in 2000 and 2020

年份	土地类型	耕地	林地	草地	水体	建设用地	未利用地
2000	类型面积(km²)	22065	8219	4080	1533	2907	117
2000	类型比例(%)	56.69	21.12	10.48	3.94	7.47	0.30
2020	类型面积(km²)	21177	8208	3540	1344	4908	13
2020	类型比例(%)	54.04	20.94	9.03	3.43	12.52	0.03

图1 黄河流域(河南段)研究区土地利用概况

Fig.1 Land use in the study area of the Yellow River Basin (Henan Section)

表2 气象和土地利用数据资料表

Table 2 Data profile of meteorology and land use

参数	数据来源	空间分辨率(km)	时间分辨率(d)	数据名称
NDVI	GIMMS NDVI	8	15	美国国家航空航天局
NDVI	MODIS NDVI	1	30	美国国家航空航天局
气象数据	气温	—	1	中国气象数据网
气象数据	降水	—	1	中国气象数据网
辅助数据	土地利用	1	1	资源环境科学与数据中心

图2 2001—2015年黄河流域(河南段)逐月(a)及月均值(b)GIMMS NDVI和MODIS NDVI变化

Fig.2 Monthly (a) and multi-year monthly average (b) changes of GIMMS NDVI and MODIS NDVI in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) from 2001 to 2015

图3 重构前后 GIMMS NDVI和GIMMS MODIS NDVI散点图(a)及差值直方图(b)

Fig.3 Scatterplot (a) and difference histogram (b) of GIMMS NDVI and GIMMS MODIS NDVI before and after the reconstruction

图4 1982—2020年黄河流域(河南段)年均(a)和季节(b)NDVI时间变化趋势

Fig.4 Time variation trend of annual average (a) and seasonal (b) NDVI in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) from 1982 to 2020

图5 1982—2020年黄河流域(河南段)年均NDVI变化趋势(a)和显著性(b)空间分布

Fig.5 Annual NDVI trend (a) and significance (b) spatial distribution in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) from 1982 to 2020

图6 1982—2020年黄河流域(河南段)春、夏、秋和冬季NDVI变化趋势及显著性空间分布格局

Fig.6 NDVI trend and spatial pattern of significance in spring, summer, autumn, and winter of the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) from 1982 to 2020

图7 1982—2020年黄河流域(河南段)年均及四季气温和降水量时间变化趋势

Fig.7 Temporal variation trends of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) from 1982 to 2020

表3 1982—2020年黄河流域(河南段)年、春、夏、秋、冬NDVI与降水和气温的偏相关系数

Table 3 Partial correlation coefficients between NDVI and precipitation and temperature in interannual, spring, summer, autumn, and winter in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) from 1982 to 2020

参数	年	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
NDVI-气温	0.6340^**	0.5912^**	0.1631	0.0557	0.4961^**
NDVI-降水	0.0122	0.2372	0.2443	-0.0177	0.0660

图8 1982—2020年黄河流域(河南段)年际(a)、春(b)、夏(c)、秋(d)、冬(e)季气温变化空间分布

Fig.8 Spatial distribution of annual (a), spring (b), summer (c), autumn (d) and winter (e) temperature changes in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) from 1982 to 2020

图9 1982—2020年黄河流域(河南段)年际(a)、春(b)、夏(c)、秋(d)、冬(e)季降水变化空间分布

Fig.9 Spatial distribution of annual(a), spring (b), summer (c), autumn (d) and winter (e) precipitation changes in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) from 1982 to 2020

图10 1982—2022 年黄河流域(河南段)年际(a), 春(b), 夏、秋(d)、冬(e) NDVI与气温的偏相关系数空间分布

Fig.10 Spatial distribution of partial correlation coefficients between NDVI and temperature in interannual (a), spring (b), summer (c), autumn (d) and winter (e) in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) from 1982 to 2022

图11 1982—2022 年黄河流域(河南段)年际(a)、春(b)、夏(c)、秋(d)、冬(e)NDVI与降水的偏相关系数空间分布

Fig.11 Spatial distribution of partial correlation coefficients between NDVI and precipitation in interannual(a), spring (b), summer (c), autumn (d) and winter (e) in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) from 1982 to 2022

表4 不同植被类型的NDVI变化趋势

Table 4 NDVI variation of different vegetation types

参数	耕地	林地	草地	建设用地
NDVI趋势	0.0027	0.0035	0.0029	0.0016
NDVI显著性	P<0.1	P<0.01	P<0.05	P>0.1

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