基于HEC-RAS及GIS的川西叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖溃决洪水重建

doi:10.19657/j.geoscience.1000-8527.2021.168

现代地质 ›› 2022, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (02): 610-623.DOI: 10.19657/j.geoscience.1000-8527.2021.168

基于HEC-RAS及GIS的川西叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖溃决洪水重建

马俊学¹(), 陈剑¹(), 崔之久², 刘蓓蓓³

1. 中国地质大学(北京) 工程技术学院,北京 100083;.北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871
2. 应急管理部国家减灾中心,北京 100124

收稿日期:2021-05-20 修回日期:2022-03-01 出版日期:2022-04-10 发布日期:2022-06-01
通讯作者: 陈剑
作者简介:陈剑,男,教授,博士生导师,1975年出生,地质工程专业,主要从事灾害地貌学、工程地质和地质灾害防治研究。Email:jianchen@cugb.edu.cn。
马俊学,男,博士研究生,助理工程师,1987年出生,地质工程专业,主要从事工程地质与地质灾害防治研究。Email:sdnj2mjx@163.com。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508806);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1505003);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41230743);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41571012)

HEC-RAS-/GIS-Based Paleohydraulic Reconstruction of the Diexi Ancient Landslide-Dammed Lake Outburst Flood in Western Sichuan Province

MA Junxue¹(), CHEN Jian¹(), CUI Zhijiu², LIU Beibei³

1. School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
2. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
3. National Disaster Reduction Center of China, Ministry of Emergency Management of China, Beijing 100124, China

Received:2021-05-20 Revised:2022-03-01 Online:2022-04-10 Published:2022-06-01
Contact: CHEN Jian

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

青藏高原东南缘岷江上游地区地质环境条件十分复杂,滑坡堵江灾害及堰塞湖溃决事件频发,重建其灾害演化过程对于地区性防灾减灾和风险控制具有重要指导意义。以川西岷江上游叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖为研究对象,首先利用高精度DEM和ArcGIS软件重建了叠溪古堰塞湖的原始规模,其原始最大湖水面积为1.1×10⁷ m²,相应的湖容量为2.9×10⁹ m³;然后采用经验公式法和HEC-RAS一维水力学模型重建叠溪古堰塞湖溃决洪水的水力学特征。计算结果表明,HEC-RAS模拟的最大溃决洪水洪峰流量为73 060 m³/s,与经验公式法计算结果(74 500~76 800 m³/s,平均值76 000 m³/s)非常接近,误差小于5%。对应的最大洪水深度和流速分别为70.1 m和16.78 m/s,模拟河段的洪水淹没范围约为6.08 km²。综合误差分析推测的溃决洪峰流量误差范围为69 000~81 000 m³/s。叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖溃决洪水在世界范围内是十分罕见的,其最直接的影响是在下游数公里范围的河谷内形成大量带状或台阶状的溃坝堆积体和巨砾石堆积“阶地”,且这种影响仍延续至今,这与前人关于高能洪水水文特征和沉积特征的研究认识高度一致,证明本研究成果是非常可靠的。此外,本研究还表明,HEC-RAS一维水力模型可用于高山峡谷地区古滑坡堰塞湖溃决洪水重建研究,可为青藏高原东南缘岷江上游古环境重建和地貌演化提供参考。

关键词: 古滑坡堰塞湖, 溃决洪水, 洪峰流量, HEC-RAS, 误差分析, 岷江上游

Abstract:

Landslide-dammed lakes and outburst floods have been widely developed along the Upper Minjiang River valley, due to the complex geological environmental conditions in this region. Hazard evolution reconstruction has major significance for regional disaster prevention and mitigation. This study is dedicated to the Diexi ancient landslide-dammed lake (DALL) triggered by a strong paleoseismic in the Upper Minjiang River in Western Sichuan Province, at the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. We focus on the fluid dynamics of downstream megaflood characteristics. The estimated former lake size was 1.1×10⁷ m², and the impounded volume was 2.9×10⁹ m³. The maximum peak discharge and paleohydraulics of the landslide-dammed lake outburst flood (LLOF) were reconstructed with empirical equations and one-dimensional (1D) HEC-RAS hydraulic numerical model. The results reveal that the maximum peak flow of the Diexi ancient LLOF by HEC-RAS was 73,060 m³/s, largely similar to the results by the empirical methods (74,500-76,800 m³/s, avg. 76,000 m³/s), with an error of < 5%. The corresponding maximum flood depth and flow velocity are 70.1 m and 16.78 m/s, respectively. The inundated area during the modeled reach of Minjiang River was approximately 6.08 km². The uncertainty bound of the maximum peak discharge was determined to be 69,000-81,000 m³/s. The maximum peak discharge of the Diexi ancient LLOF was more than one hundred times the average annual flow of Minjiang River (approximately 700 m³/s), indicating that it was an abnormally large outburst flood in Diexi Region once in a hundreds-of-thousand years in history, and also one of the world’s largest LLOFs. The direct consequence of the high-energy outburst flood was the formation of band- or terrace-shaped outburst deposit bars and boulder deposit terraces on both sides of the gorge and river-bed in the downstream. These findings are consistent with previous hydrological and sedimentary studies on the high-energy outburst floods, demonstrating the high reliability of our results. In addition, this study also shows that the 1D HEC-RAS model can be used to reconstruct the hydraulics of an ancient LLOF in deep-confined gorge environments. This study is of great significance to the paleoenvironment reconstruction and geomorphic evolution in the upper reaches of Minjiang River.

Key words: ancient landslide-dammed lake, outburst flood, peak discharge, HEC-RAS, uncertainty assessment, Upper Minjiang River

中图分类号:

P642.2
X141

马俊学, 陈剑, 崔之久, 刘蓓蓓. 基于HEC-RAS及GIS的川西叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖溃决洪水重建[J]. 现代地质, 2022, 36(02): 610-623.

MA Junxue, CHEN Jian, CUI Zhijiu, LIU Beibei. HEC-RAS-/GIS-Based Paleohydraulic Reconstruction of the Diexi Ancient Landslide-Dammed Lake Outburst Flood in Western Sichuan Province[J]. Geoscience, 2022, 36(02): 610-623.

图/表 13

图1 青藏高原东缘构造活动分布及研究区位置图

Fig.1 Outline of the active structures in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau and location of the study area

图2 HEC-RAS数值模型溃决洪水重建流程图

Fig.2 Flowchart of the hydraulic reconstruction procedure with the HEC-RAS numerical model

图3 叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖沉积地貌特征 (a)永和村附近叠溪古堰塞湖末端湖相沉积物沉积地貌特征;(b)叠溪残留古滑坡坝体沉积地貌特征(据文献[36]修改)

Fig.3 Sedimentary and geomorphologic characteristics of the Diexi ancient landslide-dammed lake

图4 叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖原始集水面积及湖容量重建(湖水面高程2 355 m)

Fig.4 Map showing the reconstructed original lake surface area and responding volume of the ancient Diexi landslide-dammed lake, with a water surface elevation of 2,355 m a.s.l.

图5 HEC-RAS几何模型 (a)本研究建立的叠溪古堰塞湖溃决洪水反演HEC-RAS几何模型;(b)HEC-RAS软件界面几何模型示意图(单位:m)

Fig.5 HEC-RAS geometric model

表1 叠溪古堰塞湖溃决洪水反演HCE-RAS水力模型输入参数

Table 1 Data input for the HCE-RAS hydraulic reconstruction model of the Diexi ancient LLOF

模型	参数		取值
几何模型	DEM分辨率/m		10×10
	模拟河段长度/m		7 615
	横剖面数量/条		41
	剖面线平均间距/m		190
水力模型	粗糙度系数 (曼宁系数)	河道	0.004
	粗糙度系数 (曼宁系数)	洪泛区	0.006
	收缩系数		0.1
	膨胀系数		0.3
	边界条件	上游	预设洪峰流量
	边界条件	下游	河床底坡S = 0.005 m/m
	洪水流态		亚临界稳定流

图6 HEC-RAS模拟的叠溪古堰塞湖溃决洪水水面高度及洪水流速 (a)溃决洪水水面高度;(b)溃决洪水流速

Fig.6 Simulated water surface elevations and flow velocities with the HEC-RAS hydraulic model

图7 模拟段叠溪古堰塞湖溃决洪水的淹没范围

Fig.7 Map showing the inundated areas of the Diexi ancient LLOF with a discharge of 73,060 m3/s

表2 叠溪古堰塞湖溃决洪水HEC-RAS模拟结果灵敏度分析

Table 2 Sensitivity assessment on the HEC-RAS results for the Diexi ancient LLOF

输入参数	初始值	改变量/cm	洪峰流量
输入参数	初始值	改变量/cm	计算值/ (m³/s)	变化量/ (m³/s)	相对误差/%
水面高度	2 106 m	+10	73 580	+520	+0.71
		-10	72 500	-560	-0.77
		+30	74 470	+1 410	+2.24
		-30	71 618	-1 442	-2.29
		+50	75 500	+2 440	+3.87
		-50	70 650	-2 410	-3.82
		+100	77 880	+4 820	+7.64
		-100	68 290	-4 770	-7.56
曼宁系数(n)	河道0.04, 洪泛区 0.06	+10%(河道0.044,洪泛区0.066)	55 632	-7 428	-11.78
曼宁系数(n)	河道0.04, 洪泛区 0.06	-10%(河道0.036,洪泛区0.054)	81 820	+8 760	+11.99
下游边界条件	河床底坡 S=0.005 m/m	+10%(0.005 5)	73 070	+10	+0.02
		-10%(0.004 5)	73 020	-40	-0.06
		+20%(0.006)	73 078	+18	+0.03
		-20%(0.004)	73 010	-50	-0.08
横剖面数量	41条	87条	51 621	-11 439	-18.14
横剖面数量	41条	28条	83 648	+10 588	+16.79
水流方向	弯曲型	相对平直型	73 060	0	0
DEM 分辨率	10 m×10 m	30 m×30 m	72 945	-115	-0.18

表3 经验方法溃决洪峰流量误差分析

Table 3 Uncertainty assessment of the outburst flood peak discharge

计算方法		参数	初始值	改变量	洪峰流量
计算方法		参数	初始值	改变量	初始值/ (m³/s)	计算值/ (m³/s)	变化量/ (m³/s)	相对误差/%	备注
线性回归方程	公式(1)^[24]	堰塞湖库容量(V_w)	2.9×10⁹ m³	+10%	74 500	78 405	+3 905	+5.38	理想误差范围
				-10%		70 494	-4 006	-5.11	理想误差范围
				+20%		82 105	+7 605	+10.79	最大可接受误差范围
				-20%		66 228	-8 272	-10.08	最大可接受误差范围
	公式(2)^[41]	堰塞湖库容量(V)	2.9×10⁹ m³	+10%	76 600	80 024	+3 424	+4.58	理想误差范围
				-10%		72 968	-3 632	-4.54	理想误差范围
				+20%		83 292	+6 692	+9.17	最大可接受误差范围
				-20%		69 120	-7 480	-8.98	最大可接受误差范围
简易参数方程	公式(3)^[49]	溃决高度(d)	53 m	+3 m	76 800	88 159	+11 359	+14.79	理想误差范围
				-3 m		66 408	-10 392	-13.53	理想误差范围
				+5 m		96 242	+19 442	+25.31	最大可接受误差范围
				-5 m		59 965	-16 835	-21.92	最大可接受误差范围

图9 叠溪河谷段溃坝堆积物的分布特征（（b）——(d)）及巨硕石粒径统计（a）位置

Fig.9 Distributional features of the outburst deposits (b)-(d) in the Diexi Reach and location statistics (a) of the largest boulders

图8 叠溪古堰塞湖溃决洪峰流量误差分析

Fig.8 Uncertainty assessment of the peak discharge of the Diexi ancient LLOF

表4 叠溪古滑坡残留坝体下游河道最大砾石直径统计

Table 4 Statistics of the largest boulder diameter along the downstream channels of the relict Diexi paleo-landslide dam

参数	统计位置
参数	Loc.1	Loc.2	Loc.3	Loc.4	Loc.5
统计数量	36	30	30	40	38
最大平均粒径/m	4.3	3.6	2.9	1.9	1.7

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基于HEC-RAS及GIS的川西叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖溃决洪水重建

HEC-RAS-/GIS-Based Paleohydraulic Reconstruction of the Diexi Ancient Landslide-Dammed Lake Outburst Flood in Western Sichuan Province

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