Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Based on Weight-of-Evidence Modeling of the Batang Fault Zone, Eastern Tibetan Plateau

doi:10.19657/j.geoscience.1000-8527.2020.091

Abstract

Abstract:

The NE-SW-trending Batang fault is located in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, and has strong Holocene activity. Geological disasters such as collapses, landslides, and debris flows along the Batang fault zone are common. Through remote sensing interpretation and field survey, we established a landslide inventory over 10 km from both sides of the Batang fault, and a total of 93 landslide hazard points were identified. Based on the landslide geological background analysis, we summarized ten landslide susceptibility evaluation factors, i.e., topography (elevation, slope, aspect), topographic wetness index, lithology, meteorology and hydrology, active faults, engineering activities, and vegetation coverage. Weight-of-Evidence Modeling is used to calculate the landslide susceptibility. Using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve accuracy of 82.3%, and the natural breaks-based method, the landslide susceptibility along the Batang active fault zone is divided into four levels(extremely high, high, medium, and low). The landslide susceptibility is mainly controlled by the Batang fault and river valley. The extremely high and high susceptibility zones are mainly distributed along the Batang fault zone and along the Jinshajiang and the Baquhe river valleys. The medium susceptibility zones are mainly distributed on both sides of the Baquhe tributaries. Low susceptibility zones are mainly distributed in high mountain areas with low engineering activities, and in relatively flat topography. The landslide susceptibility analysis results can well reflect the landslide development features along the Batang fault zone, and can provide scientific support for the major project construction and disaster prevention and mitigation.

Key words: Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Batang fault, landslide, WOE model, susceptibility assessment

CLC Number:

P642

YAN Yiqiu, YANG Zhihua, ZHANG Xujiao, MENG Shaowei, GUO Changbao, WU Ruian, ZHANG Yiying. Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Based on Weight-of-Evidence Modeling of the Batang Fault Zone, Eastern Tibetan Plateau[J]. Geoscience, 2021, 35(01): 26-37.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig.1 Geohazard distribution map in the Batang fault zone

Fig.2 Geologic map of the Batang fault zone

Fig.3 Field photos of typical landslides in the Batang fault zone

Fig.4 Landslide factor maps of the Batang fault zone

Table 1 WOE calculation results of landslide susceptibility assessment along the Batang fault zone

影响因子	分级		分区面积 /km²		总面积占比/%		滑坡面积/km²		滑坡面积占比/%			$W i +$ 值		$W i -$ 值		W_f值
高程/m	<2 500		50.841 3		0.51		2.786 3		4.06			2.120 4		-0.036 6		2.156 9
	2 500~3 000		444.390 0		4.47		24.585 6		35.82			2.130 4		-0.400 0		2.530 4
	3 000~3 500		861.614 4		8.67		27.727 5		40.40			1.564 4		-0.429 2		1.993 5
	3 500~4 000		1 816.745 0		18.29		12.549 4		18.28			-0.000 2		0		-0.000 2
	4 000~5 000		6 414.440 6		64.57		0.986 3		1.44			-3.812 0		1.035 5		-4.847 5
	>5 000		346.404 4		3.49		0.00		0.0
坡度/ (°)	0~10		1 943.985 0		19.57		10.315 0		15.03			-0.265 5		0.055 3		-0.678 1
	10~20		1 680.376 9		16.91		6.450 0		9.40			-0.590 8		0.087 2		1.436 7
	20~30		3 110.125 6		31.31		25.097 5		36.57			0.556 5		-0.880 2		0.584 3
	30~40		2 385.433 1		24.01		20.178 1		29.40			0.704 0		-0.574 0		0.175 4
	>40		814.514 4		8.20		6.594 4		9.61			0.159 8		-0.015 6		-0.320 8
坡向	平坦(无坡向)		1 847.269 4		18.59		10.401 3		15.15			-0.205 9		0.041 7		-0.247 5
	N		475.745 0		4.79		2.303 1		3.36			-0.357 7		0.015 0		-0.372 8
	NE		1 113.393 1		11.21		5.816 3		8.47			-0.281 2		0.030 5		-0.311 8
	E		1 143.394 4		11.51		5.551 3		8.09			-0.354 8		0.038 2		-0.393 0
	SE		993.125 0		10.00		4.421 9		6.44			-0.441 8		0.039 0		-0.480 8
	S		908.413 8		9.14		5.654 4		8.24			-0.105 0		0.010 0		-0.115 0
	SW		1 194.700 6		12.03		9.852 5		14.35			0.178 4		-0.027 0		0.205 4
	W		1 194.701 9		12.03		13.945 0		20.32			0.529 2		-0.099 6		0.628 9
	NW		1 063.692 5		10.71		10.689 4		15.57			0.377 9		-0.056 4		0.434 3
TWI	<10		8 303.741 9		83.59		58.089 4		84.84			0.014 8		-0.079 0		0.093 8
	10~20		271.928 8		2.74		2.102 5		3.07			0.115 6		-0.003 5		0.119 1
	>20		1 356.616 3		13.66		8.276 9		12.09			-0.122 9		0.018 1		-0.141 1
距断裂的距离/m	0~500		696.294 4		7.01		13.358 8		19.37			1.033 3		-0.143 8		1.177 1
	500~100 0		663.798 8		6.68		10.997 5		15.94			0.883 9		-0.105 5		0.989 4
	1 000~2 000		1 246.383 8		12.55		15.737 5		22.81			0.608 3		-0.126 4		0.734 6
	2 000~5 000		2 982.946 9		30.03		20.767 5		30.11			0.007 2		-0.003 1		0.010 3
	5 000~10 000		2 868.790 6		28.88		7.336 9		10.64			-0.998 7		0.228 2		-1.226 9
	>10 000		1 521.397 5		15.31		0.783 8		1.14			-2.603 0		0.155 1		-2.758 2
工程地质岩组	1		17.839 4		0.18		1.356 9		1.97			2.471 2		-0.018 2		2.489 5
	2		867.818 8		8.74		1.161 3		1.68			-1.646 8		0.074 5		-1.721 3
	3		649.206 3		6.53		0.00		0.0
	4		261.644 4		2.63		0.936 3		1.36			-0.660 9		0.013 0		-0.673 9
	5		1 160.734 4		11.68		2.856 3		4.14			-1.036 5		0.081 9		-1.118 4
	6		672.953 8		6.77		1.630 0		2.36			-1.052 3		0.046 2		-1.098 5
	7		1 452.033 1		14.62		25.143 8		36.48			0.929 7		-0.298 4		1.228 1
	8		26.211 9		0.26		0.00		0.0
	9		2 264.220 0		22.79		17.775 0		25.79			0.129 0		-0.041 2		0.170 3
	10		553.790 0		5.57		7.636 3		11.08			0.698 4		-0.060 7		0.759 1
	11		1 776.793 8		17.89		10.428 1		15.13			-0.163 8		0.032 2		-0.196 1
	12		276.243 8		2.78		0.00		0.0
年平均降雨量/mm	<500		4 589.000 0		46.19		43.576 3		63.31			0.322 3		-0.389 0		0.711 3
	500~550		3 364.750 0		33.87		23.926 9		34.76			0.030 7		-0.016 0		0.046 7
	550~600		1 764.750 0		17.76		1.326 3		1.93			-2.222 9		0.176 5		-2.399 4
	>600		260.750 0		2.62		0.00		0.0
	影响因子	分级		分区面积 /km²		总面积占比/%		滑坡面积/km²		滑坡面积数占比/%			$W i +$ 值		$W i -$ 值		W_f值
距河流的距离/m	0~100		89.357 5		0.90		3.264 4		4.73			1.695 1		-0.039 8		1.734 9
	100~300		178.609 4		1.80		6.383 8		9.25			1.672 4		-0.079 6		1.752 0
	300~800		444.866 3		4.48		15.143 8		21.95			1.621 9		-0.203 5		1.825 5
	800~1 500		615.719 4		6.20		14.021 9		20.33			1.208 3		-0.164 6		1.373 0
	1 500~2 500		869.543 1		8.75		16.843 8		24.42			1.043 1		-0.190 0		1.233 0
	>2 500		7 781.165 6		78.33		13.324 4		19.32			-1.400 7		1.317 0		-2.717 7
距道路的距离/m	0~500		156.173 1		1.57		7.701 3		11.17			2.008 9		-0.103 3		2.112 3
	500~1 000		151.2 900		1.52		4.636 9		6.72			1.513 9		-0.054 7		1.568 6
	1 000~2 000		294.876 9		2.97		6.207 5		9.00			1.128 4		-0.064 8		1.1932
	2 000~4 000		562.218 8		5.66		8.351 3		12.11			0.773 4		-0.071 6		0.845 0
	4 000~8 000		1 056.659 4		10.64		11.163 1		16.19			0.428 3		-0.065 1		0.493 5
	>8 000		7 758.213 8		78.09		30.890 6		44.80			-0.554 1		0.918 6		-1.472 7
NDVI	<0	1.002 5		0.01		0		0
	0~0.2	478.665 6		4.82		0		0
	0.2~0.4	1 196.983 8		12.05		1.415 0		2.07		-1.764 8	0.107 7		-1.872 5
	0.4~0.6	2 338.163 8		23.54		13.040 6		19.04		-0.209 0	0.056 2		-0.265 2
	0.6~0.8	4 141.938 8		41.69		40.657 5		59.35		0.360 6	-0.366 1		0.726 6
	>0.8	1 821.836 3		18.34		13.388 8		19.55		0.068 6	-0.016 0		0.084 6

Table 1 WOE calculation results of landslide susceptibility assessment along the Batang fault zone

影响因子	分级		分区面积 /km²		总面积占比/%		滑坡面积/km²		滑坡面积占比/%			$W i +$ 值		$W i -$ 值		W_f值
高程/m	<2 500		50.841 3		0.51		2.786 3		4.06			2.120 4		-0.036 6		2.156 9
	2 500~3 000		444.390 0		4.47		24.585 6		35.82			2.130 4		-0.400 0		2.530 4
	3 000~3 500		861.614 4		8.67		27.727 5		40.40			1.564 4		-0.429 2		1.993 5
	3 500~4 000		1 816.745 0		18.29		12.549 4		18.28			-0.000 2		0		-0.000 2
	4 000~5 000		6 414.440 6		64.57		0.986 3		1.44			-3.812 0		1.035 5		-4.847 5
	>5 000		346.404 4		3.49		0.00		0.0
坡度/ (°)	0~10		1 943.985 0		19.57		10.315 0		15.03			-0.265 5		0.055 3		-0.678 1
	10~20		1 680.376 9		16.91		6.450 0		9.40			-0.590 8		0.087 2		1.436 7
	20~30		3 110.125 6		31.31		25.097 5		36.57			0.556 5		-0.880 2		0.584 3
	30~40		2 385.433 1		24.01		20.178 1		29.40			0.704 0		-0.574 0		0.175 4
	>40		814.514 4		8.20		6.594 4		9.61			0.159 8		-0.015 6		-0.320 8
坡向	平坦(无坡向)		1 847.269 4		18.59		10.401 3		15.15			-0.205 9		0.041 7		-0.247 5
	N		475.745 0		4.79		2.303 1		3.36			-0.357 7		0.015 0		-0.372 8
	NE		1 113.393 1		11.21		5.816 3		8.47			-0.281 2		0.030 5		-0.311 8
	E		1 143.394 4		11.51		5.551 3		8.09			-0.354 8		0.038 2		-0.393 0
	SE		993.125 0		10.00		4.421 9		6.44			-0.441 8		0.039 0		-0.480 8
	S		908.413 8		9.14		5.654 4		8.24			-0.105 0		0.010 0		-0.115 0
	SW		1 194.700 6		12.03		9.852 5		14.35			0.178 4		-0.027 0		0.205 4
	W		1 194.701 9		12.03		13.945 0		20.32			0.529 2		-0.099 6		0.628 9
	NW		1 063.692 5		10.71		10.689 4		15.57			0.377 9		-0.056 4		0.434 3
TWI	<10		8 303.741 9		83.59		58.089 4		84.84			0.014 8		-0.079 0		0.093 8
	10~20		271.928 8		2.74		2.102 5		3.07			0.115 6		-0.003 5		0.119 1
	>20		1 356.616 3		13.66		8.276 9		12.09			-0.122 9		0.018 1		-0.141 1
距断裂的距离/m	0~500		696.294 4		7.01		13.358 8		19.37			1.033 3		-0.143 8		1.177 1
	500~100 0		663.798 8		6.68		10.997 5		15.94			0.883 9		-0.105 5		0.989 4
	1 000~2 000		1 246.383 8		12.55		15.737 5		22.81			0.608 3		-0.126 4		0.734 6
	2 000~5 000		2 982.946 9		30.03		20.767 5		30.11			0.007 2		-0.003 1		0.010 3
	5 000~10 000		2 868.790 6		28.88		7.336 9		10.64			-0.998 7		0.228 2		-1.226 9
	>10 000		1 521.397 5		15.31		0.783 8		1.14			-2.603 0		0.155 1		-2.758 2
工程地质岩组	1		17.839 4		0.18		1.356 9		1.97			2.471 2		-0.018 2		2.489 5
	2		867.818 8		8.74		1.161 3		1.68			-1.646 8		0.074 5		-1.721 3
	3		649.206 3		6.53		0.00		0.0
	4		261.644 4		2.63		0.936 3		1.36			-0.660 9		0.013 0		-0.673 9
	5		1 160.734 4		11.68		2.856 3		4.14			-1.036 5		0.081 9		-1.118 4
	6		672.953 8		6.77		1.630 0		2.36			-1.052 3		0.046 2		-1.098 5
	7		1 452.033 1		14.62		25.143 8		36.48			0.929 7		-0.298 4		1.228 1
	8		26.211 9		0.26		0.00		0.0
	9		2 264.220 0		22.79		17.775 0		25.79			0.129 0		-0.041 2		0.170 3
	10		553.790 0		5.57		7.636 3		11.08			0.698 4		-0.060 7		0.759 1
	11		1 776.793 8		17.89		10.428 1		15.13			-0.163 8		0.032 2		-0.196 1
	12		276.243 8		2.78		0.00		0.0
年平均降雨量/mm	<500		4 589.000 0		46.19		43.576 3		63.31			0.322 3		-0.389 0		0.711 3
	500~550		3 364.750 0		33.87		23.926 9		34.76			0.030 7		-0.016 0		0.046 7
	550~600		1 764.750 0		17.76		1.326 3		1.93			-2.222 9		0.176 5		-2.399 4
	>600		260.750 0		2.62		0.00		0.0
	影响因子	分级		分区面积 /km²		总面积占比/%		滑坡面积/km²		滑坡面积数占比/%			$W i +$ 值		$W i -$ 值		W_f值
距河流的距离/m	0~100		89.357 5		0.90		3.264 4		4.73			1.695 1		-0.039 8		1.734 9
	100~300		178.609 4		1.80		6.383 8		9.25			1.672 4		-0.079 6		1.752 0
	300~800		444.866 3		4.48		15.143 8		21.95			1.621 9		-0.203 5		1.825 5
	800~1 500		615.719 4		6.20		14.021 9		20.33			1.208 3		-0.164 6		1.373 0
	1 500~2 500		869.543 1		8.75		16.843 8		24.42			1.043 1		-0.190 0		1.233 0
	>2 500		7 781.165 6		78.33		13.324 4		19.32			-1.400 7		1.317 0		-2.717 7
距道路的距离/m	0~500		156.173 1		1.57		7.701 3		11.17			2.008 9		-0.103 3		2.112 3
	500~1 000		151.2 900		1.52		4.636 9		6.72			1.513 9		-0.054 7		1.568 6
	1 000~2 000		294.876 9		2.97		6.207 5		9.00			1.128 4		-0.064 8		1.1932
	2 000~4 000		562.218 8		5.66		8.351 3		12.11			0.773 4		-0.071 6		0.845 0
	4 000~8 000		1 056.659 4		10.64		11.163 1		16.19			0.428 3		-0.065 1		0.493 5
	>8 000		7 758.213 8		78.09		30.890 6		44.80			-0.554 1		0.918 6		-1.472 7
NDVI	<0	1.002 5		0.01		0		0
	0~0.2	478.665 6		4.82		0		0
	0.2~0.4	1 196.983 8		12.05		1.415 0		2.07		-1.764 8	0.107 7		-1.872 5
	0.4~0.6	2 338.163 8		23.54		13.040 6		19.04		-0.209 0	0.056 2		-0.265 2
	0.6~0.8	4 141.938 8		41.69		40.657 5		59.35		0.360 6	-0.366 1		0.726 6
	>0.8	1 821.836 3		18.34		13.388 8		19.55		0.068 6	-0.016 0		0.084 6

Table 2 Engineering geologic rock formation in the study area

序号	工程地质岩组名称	主要地层代号
1	坚硬的厚层状砾岩砂岩岩组	T₃l
2	较坚硬-坚硬的中-厚层状砂岩夹砾岩、泥岩、板岩岩组	T₃z,P₁j
3	软硬相间的中-厚层状砂岩、泥岩夹灰岩、泥质灰岩及其互层岩组	SDr,T₃w,P₂,J,C₁
4	弱-较坚硬薄-中厚层状砂、泥岩及砾、泥岩互层岩组	T_2-3j
5	坚硬的中-厚层状灰岩及白云岩岩组	T₃g,Sg,P₁m
6	较坚硬的薄-中厚层状灰岩、泥质灰岩岩组	Dg-t
7	软硬相间的中-厚层状灰岩、白云岩夹砂、泥岩、千枚岩、板岩岩组	T_1-2m
8	较坚硬-坚硬薄-中厚层状板岩、千枚岩与变质砂岩互层岩组	D_1-2h
9	较弱-较坚硬的薄-中厚层状千枚岩、片岩夹灰岩、砂岩、火山岩岩组	T_1-2Y,P₁e
10	坚硬的块状玄武岩为主的岩组	P₂g,T₃gl
11	坚硬块状花岗岩、安山岩、闪长岩岩组	Pt_2-3N,Pt₂D,T₃MC,Tγδ,Jγδ,Jγ,Tγ,Eγ
12	软质散体结构岩组	Qp,Qh

Table 3 AHP judgment matrix and weighted value of landslide factors

评价因子	高程	坡度	坡向	TWI	距断裂的距离	岩性	降雨	距河流的距离	距道路的距离	NDVI	权重值(a_i)
高程	1	1/3	1/2	2	1/4	1/3	1	1/2	1/2	2	0.15
坡度	3	1	3	2	1	1/2	1/2	2	2	2	0.21
坡向	2	1/3	1	1/4	1/4	1/3	1/4	1/2	1/2	1/2	0.06
TWI	1/2	1/2	4	1	1	1/2	1/2	1/4	1	4	0.11
距断裂的距离	4	1	4	1	1	2	1	2	2	1	0.11
岩性	3	2	3	2	1/2	1	2	2	3	2	0.05
降雨	1	2	4	2	1	1/2	1	2	2	4	0.06
距河流的距离	2	1/2	2	4	1/2	1/2	1/2	1	2	1/2	0.09
距道路的距离	2	1/2	2	1	1/2	2/7	1/2	1/2	1	1	0.11
NDVI	1/2	1/2	2	1/4	1	1/2	1/4	2	1	1	0.05

Fig.5 ROC curve for landslide susceptibility value of the Batang fault zone

Fig.6 Landslide susceptibility map of the Batang fault zone

References 25

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